According to the paper, local authority housing finance is strong and on a positive trajectory overall (though it may be plateauing) but there is considerable local variation.

The authors Tony Cain and Professor Ken Gibb conclude that:

• Local variations are one reason why we need a serious investment in research into individual local authority Housing Revenue Account (HRA) business plans and their assumptions.
• It appears under reasonable assumptions and standard summary measurement techniques, that considerable financial capacity exists in the sector to invest more in new homes and that this may be further increased if local authorities switched from pool rates to spot rates for borrowing.
• There is an affordability trade-off for rent levels between individual councils funding strategies between borrowing or using surpluses – this is another reason why we need forensic research into HRA business plans to understand how these long term decisions are being made.

The briefing paper is available here.