Experts predict significant rise in energy price cap from October

Experts predict significant rise in energy price cap from October

A predicted rise in the cost of energy bills in October will come as a shock to households still struggling with debts built up last winter, Scotland’s national advice service has said.

The latest forecast from energy consultancy Cornwall Insight has predicted a significant rise in the Ofgem price cap from October 1.

The analysis found that the typical household faces paying an extra £146 per year, with average bills rising from £1,568 per year at present to £1,714.

Ofgem is due to announce the exact level of the price cap on Friday.

ADS runs the energyadvice.scot service, which provides free, impartial, and practical advice on energy bills for anyone in Scotland.

Conor Forbes, policy director at Advice Direct Scotland, said: “This predicted rise in Ofgem’s energy price cap will come as an unwelcome shock to households preparing for what looks set to be another long and difficult winter.

“The impact of the cost-of-living crisis is still being felt across the country and many people are struggling under the burden of energy debts they built up last winter.

“Customers who are worried about the coming price rises should contact their supplier in case support is available. Now is also a good time to start comparing energy deals.

“We urge people across Scotland not to struggle alone – our expert advisers can provide free advice on the support available and ensure that households are claiming all the benefits they are entitled to.”

Looking further ahead, Cornwall Insight currently forecasts the cap will show a further modest increase in January 2025. However, recent tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war could see prices rise further at the start of the new year, it added.

Cornwall Insight said it is essential that the vulnerable are protected from rising energy bills in the short term. According to the consultancy, this could involve the introduction of social tariffs, revising benefits, or adjusting the price cap mechanism. Ofgem is currently undergoing a comprehensive review of the price cap with potential changes to elements such as the standing charge expected over the coming year.

Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said: “This is not the news households want to hear when moving into the colder months. Following two consecutive falls in the cap, I’m sure many hoped we were on a steady path back to pre-crisis prices. However, the lingering impact of the energy crisis, has left us with a market that’s still highly volatile and quick to react to any bad news on the supply front.

“Despite this, while we don’t expect a return to the extreme prices of recent years, it’s unlikely that bills will return to what was once considered normal. Without significant intervention, this may well be the new normal.

“The government will need to adopt a two-pronged approach to tackle rising energy bills. Immediate action is needed to ease the financial burden on households - such as the introduction of social tariffs, or reform of the price cap - but that’s only part of the solution. We must also develop a long-term strategy to secure our energy future. This means a fundamental overhaul of our energy system, with a strong emphasis on increasing domestic energy production. Simply waiting for prices to drop on their own isn’t an option, we need a proactive and forward-thinking approach to ensure long lasting energy affordability and security.”

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