As the JRF publishes its annual UK Poverty report today, new analysis shows that under central OBR projections, only Scotland will see child poverty rates fall by 2029, demonstrating the power of social security policy in tackling poverty.

In the central scenario, without further policy changes, by 2029:  

• The gap between child poverty rates in Scotland compared to England and Wales will have grown, with Scotland moving from being 7ppts to 10ppts below the rest of the UK 
• Almost 1 in 3 children would still be in poverty in England, but in Scotland there would be closer to 1 in 5 children in poverty in large part due to Scotland-specific policies. 
• Child poverty in Scotland would be just 70% of the level in England 
• If the rest of the UK were to see the same reduction in the share of children in poverty achieved in Scotland, 800,000 fewer children would be in poverty. 

JRF is also cautioning that children mustn’t pay the price for the ups and downs in the economy. Any cuts to welfare spending are very likely to pull more families into poverty, as our social security system is already out of step with the costs families are facing.

The leading annual barometer of poverty from the JRF finds that in the UK: 

• 4.3 million children are currently living in poverty 
• Child poverty rates are already much higher in England (30%) and Wales (29%) compared to Scotland (24%) and Northern Ireland (23%). 

The JRF has described the child poverty outlook across the four nations as “shameful”, with only Scotland showing some improvement.

The Scottish Parliament has set targets for poverty reduction, including for relative child poverty after housing costs to be below 10% by the end of the financial year 2030/31.

However, the JRF warned against relying on economic growth alone to reach that target.

The organisation examined changes in child poverty levels between January 2025 and January 2029 based on different assumptions about the growth of the UK economy. If the UK economy grows in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast over the next four years, child poverty rates in Scotland, already lower than the rest of the UK, will fall further by 2029, it predicts. This results in a difference of nearly 10 percentage points between Scotland and the rest of the UK by 2029, up from 7 percentage points in 2025.  

A strong economy can increase wages and employment but will not in itself reduce poverty, the JRF said. Even if the UK economy grows significantly more than expected, overall child poverty rates show little change and could even rise if growth benefits higher income households more than lower income ones. Specific, targeted policies are needed if child poverty rates are to come down.  

In previous years, differences in child poverty rates across the UK nations were driven by lower average housing costs in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

However, JRF’s latest analysis shows a similar reduction in poverty levels before housing costs are taken into account for children in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK. This strongly suggests that welfare policies, such as the Scottish Child Payment and mitigating the two-child limit from 2026, which boost the incomes of the parents of who receive them, are behind Scotland bucking the trend of rising child poverty rates elsewhere in the UK. 

It called for the UK Government’s child poverty strategy to abolish the two-child limit and introduce a protected minimum amount of support to Universal Credit.

Paul Kissack, chief executive of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said: “Growing levels of poverty and insecurity are acting as a tightening brake on growth and opportunity. We can’t expect children to be ready for school or able to learn if they’re going without the basics. Growing up in poverty can also lead to poor health, increasing pressure on the NHS. Child poverty will only be driven down through focused, deliberate and determined policy action. Even very strong economic growth won’t automatically change the picture.

“Policy action must start with the system designed to help people meet their costs of living – social security. At the moment that system is not only failing to do its job but, worse, actively pushing some people into deeper poverty, through cruel limits and caps. The good news is that change – meaningful change to people’s lives – is possible and can be achieved quickly. We know this from our recent history, and from different approaches across the UK.

“The British public believes that everyone should be able to afford the essentials. With its child poverty strategy later this year the Government has the opportunity to show it agrees. Any credible child poverty strategy must include policies that rebuild the tattered social security system. The wellbeing of millions of children depends on that. And so do the Government’s wider ambitions for improved living standards and opportunity.”

Responding to the report, Shelter Scotland director, Alison Watson, said: “No child should be living in poverty and the only way to eradicate child poverty is to end child homelessness.

“This report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation does suggest the level of children living in poverty in Scotland will reduce by 2029, however, one in five is still too many.

“10,110 children are trapped in, often unsuitable, temporary accommodation and while we appreciate the Scottish Government’s commitment to ending child poverty, it does not go far enough. Child homelessness needs to be at the forefront. The only way this can be done is through long term investment from the Scottish Government to local authorities and more social homes.”

Action for Children said while the report shows that Scotland will have lower child poverty rates than the rest of the UK, this figure is still “unacceptably too high”.

Fiona Steel, national director at Action for Children in Scotland, added: “It will still see Scotland and the rest of the UK have levels of poverty which should have been consigned to the past. Through our work, families tell us that poverty limits their children’s opportunities, choices, and freedoms. Poverty is not inevitable, it’s about political choices.

“Through the Scottish Child Payment (SCP) and plans to mitigate the two-child cap limit, Action for Children acknowledges the Scottish Government has taken big steps into the journey to end child poverty. However, we now need a giant leap, especially if Scotland is to meet its own legal child poverty targets.

“We know Scottish families should benefit from all three layers of government – Westminster, Holyrood, and local authorities – working together to provide a ‘triple lock’ to ensure children do not enter poverty, or are able to exit poverty and stay out of poverty. However, many families feel that rather than three levels of government working in unison, each is pulling in its own direction. We need grown up politics and partnership working from across all Governments to help Scotland’s children.”