The stark figure is enough children to fill Murrayfield Stadium more than three times over, and more than twice the legal target of fewer than one in ten children in poverty by 2030.

The report notes that First Minister John Swinney has described eradicating child poverty as “the single most important objective” of the Scottish Government and the Scottish Child Payment is helping lift children out of poverty. If delivered within the promised timescale, the commitment to mitigate the 2-child limit will also have a positive impact on child poverty. Without these policies, the think tank says Scotland’s current rate of child poverty would be even higher at 27%.

However, amid mounting pressures on public finances and the imminent release of data showing if Scotland has met or missed its interim child poverty targets, new analysis by researchers at IPPR Scotland shows that a “business as usual” approach to social security would leave 22% of Scotland’s children in poverty by 2030 – locking them out of the conditions they need to thrive.

The outlook looks worse in the rest of the UK, where without a change of course 32% of children could be in poverty at the end of the decade. Among the many harms that result from growing up in poverty, the growing attainment gap in Scotland is particularly troubling, as children from deprived areas are less likely to obtain national qualifications than their peers from affluent areas.

The research highlights that raising children requires resources in the form of time, energy and extra living space – yet the economy is not designed to ensure families have what they need. Parents must often reduce work hours to care for and nurture their children, while adequate living space increases their housing costs.

During their analysis, researchers considered a ‘better than best case employment scenario’ in which no parent is paid less than the real living wage, unemployment among parents is halved, and 40,000 economically inactive parents – a full quarter of the total – are supported into work. This would require a massive expansion of Scottish government funded employment services, helping parents into sustained work at five times the current pace.

Even if this were to be delivered, the child poverty target would still be missed, with 60% more children in poverty than required by legislation. The researchers say the inescapable conclusion of their analysis is that achieving the 2030 target is possible but only with additional spending. The most direct and targeted route for this spending would be to increase social security payments to families in or at risk of poverty.

IPPR Scotland modelled an uplift to the Scottish Child Payment as a way of achieving the target. They found that doubling the real terms value of the payment would add around £500 million to the social security budget in 2030, and would lift 40,000 more children out of poverty, cutting the child poverty rate by an additional 4 percentage points.

Researchers are clear that child poverty is not inevitable. They point to decisions that can be made to increase spending (in addition to the Scottish Child Payment and planned removal of the two-child limit) that could be taken by either from Scottish government or the UK government, the latter of which is currently developing its own child poverty strategy.

Dave Hawkey, senior research fellow at IPPR Scotland, said: “Scotland is at a crossroads and must decide whether it is willing to take the necessary steps to eradicate child poverty – there is surely only one option.

“The social security system is an important safety net to catch families when hard times hit, but this is not its only role. Even when adults are working, many families need financial support to make ends meet. Child benefit and universal credit have a vital role to play, plugging a gap that the labour market cannot and ensuring that children have what they need to grow up healthy and secure.”

He added: “The Scottish Government is in the early stages of developing its next child poverty delivery plan to cover the period up to 2030. It needs to set out the actions the Scottish government will take to reduce child poverty and the impact they will have. The evidence is clear: to meet Scotland’s legal child poverty target, Scotland must commit additional fiscal resource to our shared priority of giving every child in Scotland a good start in life.”

Social justice secretary, Shirley-Anne Somerville, said: “We are absolutely committed to meeting the 2030 child poverty targets, and will continue to do everything we can to deliver the change needed.

“Measures like the Scottish Child Payment which is forecast to benefit the families of over 330,000 children in 2025-26, are having a real impact – and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation has suggested that Scotland will be the only part of the UK to see child poverty fall.”

She added: “However we know there is more to do and our efforts are being undermined by the social security policies of the UK Government and policies like the two-child limit which is increasing poverty and hardship for many families.

“That is why in the coming financial year we will develop the systems necessary to effectively scrap the impact of the two-child cap in 2026 – which will lift thousands of children in Scotland out of poverty.”

The IPPR research comes as the Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI) issued a report that models policy packages that could reach the final relative child poverty target of 10% by 2030/31.

It explores how the recent announcement that the Scottish Government will mitigate the two-child limit will help with progress towards the targets and what else might be required.