In its annual report launched yesterday, the Commission warned Scotland is now “at risk of going backwards” on just transition, and set out a series of actions to boost progress. 

The Commission’s co-chairs Satwat Rehman and Prof. Dave Reay met with First Minister John Swinney at Bute House on Tuesday to discuss the report.

“The establishment of interim just transition targets up to 2045 aligned with Scotland’s carbon budgets would constitute a genuine world first in climate and economic policy innovation,” says the report. The recommendation on targets is based on insights from the Commission’s work since 2022, as well as new research published today by the Commission on how best to measure progress in achieving a just transition in Scotland.

The research sets out how such targets could work. “For the just transition, as for other complex and demanding endeavours, what gets measured gets done.”

“Harmful emissions can be measured empirically with a strong degree of accuracy. The fairness or otherwise of social and economic change is, by contrast, highly complex. But the climate transition is happening, and it is reshaping the lives of people and communities right across the world. There is no time to allow the perfect to be the enemy of the good. Failure to make a credible attempt at assessing the relative fairness of social and economic impacts will only encourage delays in the necessary policy actions and investments.”

This year Holyrood dropped its 2030 target for reducing harmful emissions, and from 2025 it will be committed to a series of carbon budgets up to 2045. Just transition is expected to be the main theme of COP 30 in Brazil in November 2025 and is increasingly prominent in the global climate process.

Having visited Grangemouth earlier in the year and published a detailed policy briefing in July, the Commission warns that government must “get ahead of jobs gaps” where these are foreseeable. “Jobs gaps occur when a reduction in one form of economic activity puts people out of work without a credible and timeous route for them into employment of equivalent standing. This poses a critical delivery risk to Scotland’s climate transition by encouraging workers to emigrate for opportunities or to leave the workforce entirely, weakening our skills base.”

The report calls for innovation to make sure people in Scotland reap the benefits of new infrastructure and technology. The Commission warns that “A business-as-usual, market-led approach will see Scotland retain only a small portion of the social and economic up-side on offer from our climate transition and encourage costly delays.”

Having previously called for communities to have a new statutory right to shared ownership of renewables project, the Commission once again highlighted the transformative potential of such a step, but warned communities would need the ability to access finance and technical support to make the most of the opportunity.

The Commission visited Grangemouth, Shetland, Dumfries and Galloway and Aberdeen this year. In October 2025 the Commission will “convene a national event bringing together senior leaders, decision-makers and practitioners from different levels of government, business and industry, trade unions, environmental and community groups. The aim will be to facilitate structured social dialogue on the key elements of the just transition challenge in Scotland.” It is expected the First Minister will speak at the event.

The Commission is an independent expert advisory group with members drawn from business, industry, trade unions, environmental and community groups and academia. It aims to make sure the benefits and burdens of the major changes involved in Scotland’s net zero transition are shared as fairly as possible, and is tasked by the Scottish Government with making an annual assessment of progress towards a just transition to a low carbon economy.

On the Scottish Government’s policy development work, the report expresses concern at a “pattern of delays to core elements of our climate process” as well as the development of just transition plans for key economic sectors, none of which have yet been finalised. Despite this, the report concludes, “the opportunity remains for a robust legacy to be achieved, provided existing capacity is boosted with significant additional resource, and prioritised by those in leadership positions as a hallmark of their responsible, long-term social and economic stewardship.”

There is praise for the Scottish Government’s new adaptation plan that allocates specific adaptation risks to directors across the Scottish Government. “Effective implementation and delivery of the plan in full will be a critical strategic piece for a just transition,” says the report. “Investing in adaptation and delivering the actions in this plan offer cost-effective, long-term progress towards living with climate change and building a sustainable, resilient future.

Satwat Rehman, co-chair of the Commission, said: “We have seen and heard very directly how success in achieving a just transition is critical to the lives and livelihoods of people across Scotland. Workers fear they are facing a cliff edge at the same time as storms and floods have grown increasingly frequent and severe. In Scotland we have built up a solid long-term commitment to a just transition. The next period will be critical for action and results.” 

Prof. Dave Reay, co-chair of the Commission, said: “We met the First Minister on Tuesday and set out the next steps we think are required for a just transition. We think quantifying exactly what we mean by just transition and setting targets for what we want to achieve can be transformative in catalysing action from across government, business and industry and help unlock investment. It would also represent a genuine world-first at a time when societies around the globe are grappling with how to do this.”